Host-pathogen dynamics

Most of my current work is focused on understanding host-pathogen interaction dynamics across space and time. Our study focuses on Hantavirus and its host in Panama. Thanks to the availability of data deriving from >20 years of local and collaborative surveillance we are able to explore this interesting phenomenon for the entire country and at monthly basis.
We explore the dynamics of this interaction via metapopulation models that integrate time-specific ecological niche modeling, epidemiological models, and dispersal simulations that interact in cellular automaton. Check out a simple view of our initial results below.

Next steps
- Represent and account for variability and uncertainty in predictions.
- Test additional options in which suitability modulates parameters.
- Assess sensitivity of metapopulation models to a range of parameters in the epidemiological model and dispersal simulation.